Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities are limited. The only changes worth highlighting can be seen in Canadian dollar and gold positions. Following the successful conclusion of USMCA (formerly NAFTA) negotiations, speculators reduced their short positions against the Canadian dollar by a significant degree. …

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, changes in speculator positioning are limited. For the fourth week in a row, speculators trimmed their net short position in the Swiss franc while adding to their short positions in the Japanese yen. While the two safe haven currencies typically move in the same direction, the Swiss franc has been strengthening in response to slowing European …

In our last commentary on the euro in late August, we wrote that the common currency was set to weaken further thanks to (1) slowing growth, (2) slowing inflation and (3) an outsized speculator long position in euro futures and options. Following the publication of our last commentary, EUR/USD has weakened from 1.1730 – 1.180 (the top-end of its trading range that we update daily on our...

In our previous commentary on the US dollar, we wrote that the buck was set to rise further thanks to our forecast for slowing US growth and inflation. Given the US dollar’s safe haven qualities, the currency performs the best when economic conditions deteriorate. Following the publication of our last commentary, the performance of the US dollar index (a measure of the currency against major pee…

In this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are several significant changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities. For the second week in a row, speculators made significant adjustments to their positions in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and the British pound. The biggest change this week (as a proportion of open interest) can be seen in Canadian...

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are many significant changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities. For the second week in a row, speculators reduced their net short positions in the Swiss franc. On the other hand, speculators increased their bearish bets against the Japanese yen and the British pound this week. Lastly, speculators increased…

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are few notable changes in speculator positioning. The only move worth highlighting can be seen in Swiss franc net positions. For the second week in a row, speculators cut back on their short franc positions. As we wrote two weeks ago, the Swiss franc entered a bullish trend against the US dollar and is likely to keep strengthening for t…

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are very few notable changes in speculator positioning. The biggest change can be seen in Swiss franc net positions. After the franc entered a bullish trend (a topic we covered last week), net short positions in the currency are down significantly this week. Short euro, short Swiss franc and long US dollar (based on our implied measure …

In this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, notable changes in speculator positions in major currencies and commodities are fairly limited. The most substantial changes can be seen in the British pound and the Swiss franc. Speculators significantly increased their bets against the British pound, while reducing their bets against the Swiss franc this week. Looking at extremes in positioning, sh…

In our last take on the euro in April, we wrote that the bullish case for the currency was running out of drivers. Specifically, we wrote that decelerating Eurozone growth (in rate-of-change terms), changes in trading patterns and overly bullish speculator sentiment was likely to weigh on the euro in the future. At the time, EUR/USD was trading around 1.23, near its 2018 high just above 1.2550.