US dollar

Outlook
Bullish
DAILY UPDATEThe US dollar is currently steady against all major currencies. The buck is currently the weakest against the Australian dollar. Yesterday, the US dollar index (a measure of the currency against its largest peers) surged above the high end of yesterday's indicated trading range. Following comments from President Trump regarding US monetary policy and the dollar, the currency index moved lower and ended the day flat. Today's US dollar index trading range is 94.70 - 95.70.  Looking at economic data, the US economy continues to fire on all cylinders. Yesterday's initial jobless claims figures fell to a record last seen in 1969. While data from the jobs market is a lagging indicator, the f...

Euro

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe euro is fairly steady against all major currencies today. Yesterday, the euro hit a three-week low of 1.5750 against the US dollar at one point of the day. Following Trump's comments on the strength of the US dollar, the euro made back its losses and ended the day flat. Note that yesterday's sell off was accompanied by above-average trading volumes, a sign that traders continue to sell the currency with conviction. Today's EUR/USD trading range remains 1.1510 - 1.1660.  Looking at recent economic data, German year-over-year producer price inflation accelerated last month. This is in line with accelerating producer price inflation seen in many countries around the world. Thanks to a...

British pound

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEPound sterling is fairly steady against all major currencies today. The British pound is slightly lower against the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, while trading slightly higher against the Japanese yen and the US dollar. Yesterday, GBP/USD hit a nine-month low at 1.2958 at one point in the day. The last time the pound traded at similar levels against the US dollar was in October 2017. Following comments from Trump described in our US dollar daily update, the pound made back some of yesterday's losses against the dollar. Today's GBP/USD trading range is now 1.2960 - 1.3160.  Yesterday was another bad day for the pound following weaker-than-expected UK retail sales figures. J...

Japanese yen

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Japanese yen is currently mixed. The yen is weakening against the euro and the Australian dollar, while strengthening against the US dollar. Yesterday, the yen moved up. Looking at USD/JPY, the pair moved down from a high of 113.10 to a low around 112.0. The US dollar fell after US President Trump remarked that the strong dollar puts the US at a disadvantage, while criticizing the Fed's push to raise interest rates. Given the yen's sensitivity to global risk sentiment, the yen moved up alongside a sell-off in US equity markets. Today’s USD/JPY trading range is 111.30 – 113.20. Looking at recent economic data, year-over-year core inflation accelerated to 0.8%. Reactions in the yen w...

Australian dollar

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Australian dollar is currently strengthening against all major currencies today. The Aussie is currently the strongest against the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the currency sold off sharply during the day, but made back some of its losses following comments from US President Trump. We covered Trump's latest comments in more detail in our  US dollar daily update. Note that yesterday's move lower was accompanied by above-average trading volumes - this is a sign that bears continue to sell the Australian dollar with conviction. Today's AUD/USD trading range remains 0.7310 - 0.740.  There are no significant domestic developments today. Instead, the Australian dollar is be...

Canadian dollar

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Canadian dollar is currently strengthening against all major currencies except the Australian dollar. Yesterday, the Canadian dollar sold off sharply against the US dollar, especially in the first half of the day. Later in the day, the currency rebounded against the buck following comments from US President Trump. We covered Trump's comments in greater depth in our  US dollar daily update. Note that yesterday's move lower was accompanied by significant trading volumes - this is a sign that bears are selling the currency with conviction. Today's USD/CAD trading range is 1.3230 - 1.3390.  For now, the Canadian dollar is moving up alongside rebounding commodity prices. Yesterday, most...

Gold

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEGold is trading sideways today. Yesterday, the precious metal sold off and ended the day around $1,223. Relative to recent history, yesterday's volumes were significantly above-average. When a move down is accompanied by significant trading volumes, this is a sign that traders are selling the precious metal with conviction. Gold has been selling off thanks to a strengthening dollar. However, yesterday the precious metal was helped by US President Trump's recent comments on the Fed and the strength of the currency. Specifically, Trump criticized the Fed's rate hikes and said that the strong dollar puts the US at a disadvantage. Today’s trading range is $1,212 - $1,242. Looking at gold t...

Crude oil

Outlook
Neutral
DAILY UPDATECrude oil prices are slightly higher today. Both WTI and Brent crude are currently making gains. Yesterday, crude oil benchmarks sold off at the outset of the day, but strengthened after comments from Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama. The rebound in crude oil over the last two trading sessions has been accompanied by relatively weak trading volumes - a sign that bulls are not yet buying the commodity with conviction. Today's WTI trading range is $67.30 - $71.30.  Looking at Al-Aama's comments, the Saudi governor for OPEC said that exports in August are likely to fall by 100,000 barrels per day. He emphasized that Saudi Arabia will not try to push oil into the market beyond it...

There are few notable changes in speculator positions according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report. The build-up in long US dollar positions has slowed this week, relative to the significant growth we saw in recent history. This being said, speculators continued to buy the US dollar this week while reducing their positions in all other major currencies (except the Swiss franc). The bigge…

Published 

There are a very significant number of changes in this week’s Commitments of Traders Report. The biggest change can be seen in speculator net positions in the US dollar. As the world’s benchmark currency, the big move in the dollar is influencing other major currencies and commodities. As a result, there are significant changes in net positions in the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Australian…

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are relatively few changes in net speculator positions across major currencies and commodities. The biggest change in positions can be seen in the Japanese yen, where speculators continue to flip-flop. As we wrote in last week’s edition of this report, traders remain undecided regarding the future direction of the yen.

Published 

Changes in positions are relatively limited in this week’s Commitments of Traders Report. The biggest changes in speculator net positions can be seen in the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Speculators have reduced their net short positions in both currencies this week. Changes in other major currencies and commodities are fairly limited. Looking at extremes in speculator positioning, the Swiss…

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators continue to decrease their bets in currencies and commodities inversely correlated to the US dollar. The biggest changes in positions this week can be seen in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and gold. Speculators dumped safe havens (including the franc and the yen), while adding to positions in gold and the Canadian …

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators remain long currencies that are depreciating against the US dollar. This is particularly true for euro speculators. The biggest changes in speculator positions this week can be seen in the US dollar index and the Japanese yen. While net positions in the yen flipped to positive last week, they are once again negative this week.

Published 

In this week’s Commitments of Trader’s Report, speculators continue to sell assets inversely correlated to the US dollar. The biggest changes can be seen in falling speculator net positions in the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and gold. Net positions in other assets inversely correlated to the dollar including the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and crude oil are also lower thi…

Published 

In our last take on the outlook for gold, we wrote that the combination of slowing growth outside the United States and rising inflation meant more weakness lay in store for the precious metal. When both US growth and inflation are high, the Fed is more likely to raise rates with the aid of supportive data. In an environment where US growth is outperforming its major peers, the US dollar also ten…

Published 
Tags: Gold

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators are selling inflation-sensitive currencies including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The British pound remains out of favor following both poor economic data and weak guidance from the Bank of England. Finally, speculators also dumped positions in the Australian dollar, thanks to ongoing US-China trade tensions. The net resul…

Published 

In our last commentary on the Japanese yen, we wrote that the currency was looking excessively weak against the euro. In particular, we stated that bullish catalysts driving EUR/JPY were at risk as speculator positioning in both long euro and short yen trades were looking extreme. In addition, we flagged changes to the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” program as a potential risk for yen stre…

Published 
Tags: Japanese yen

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