US dollar

Outlook
Bullish
DAILY UPDATEThe US dollar is currently slightly weaker against all major currencies except the Australian dollar. The buck is currently the weakest against the Japanese yen. Last week, the US dollar index strengthened slightly above the top-end of our indicated trading range. Later in the week, the currency weakened following comments from Trump regarding the US dollar and broader US monetary policy. Today's US dollar index trading range is 93.70 - 95.70.  Looking at the latest G20 summit, global finance ministers agreed that escalating trade tensions could hurt growth in the future, but failed to find a way to move forward. Attendees of the summit also agreed that the outlook for globally synchro...

Euro

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe euro is currently mixed. The common currency is strengthening against the US dollar, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, while selling off against the Japanese yen and the British pound. Last week, the euro ended the week slightly higher against the US dollar. Over the past month, EUR/USD has been rebounding from its previous low (1.1510). The euro's ongoing rebound has been accompanied by below-average trading volumes, a sign that traders are not buying the currency with conviction. Today's EUR/USD trading range is 1.1510 - 1.1790.  Looking at the economic calendar this week, there are quite a few important data releases on the schedule. Tomorrow, we'll see Markit manufacturing...

British pound

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEPound sterling is currently strengthening against all major currencies except the Japanese yen. Last week, the British pound sold off sharply against the US dollar at the outset of the week. After finding buyers just below the low end of our indicated trading range, the pound has been moving up. Today's GBP/USD trading range is 1.2960 - 1.3160.  This is a relatively light week for the British pound economic calendar. Beyond an upcoming speech by the Bank of England's deputy governor, there are no market-moving events on this week's schedule. Looking at Brexit-related news, the European Union looks set to reject the UK's plans for the financial services industry following Brexit. Theres...

Japanese yen

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Japanese yen is currently strengthening against all major currencies. The yen is currently the strongest against the Australian dollar. Last week, the yen ended the week higher. Note that trading volumes were elevated last week, a sign that traders are buying the Japanese yen with conviction. Today’s USD/JPY trading range is 109.40 – 113.20. Looking at recent developments, the Bank of Japan may be considering changes to its monetary policies. According to a report by Reuters, anonymous sources have claimed that changes to its interest rate target and equity buying programs may be considered. Today, Japanese banks are struggling to make money thanks to negative interest rates and l...

Australian dollar

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Australian dollar is currently selling off against all major currencies. The Aussie is currently the weakest against the Japanese yen. Last week, the Australian dollar ended flat against the US dollar. As Chinese growth decelerates and US-China trade tensions rise, the Australian dollar remains in the firing line. Today's AUD/USD trading range is 0.7310- 0.740.  There are no significant domestic developments today. Instead, traders are watching Chinese financial markets for cues. Looking at the Chinese yuan, the currency continues to weaken against the US dollar. The US dollar/offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) exchange rate is currently just below 6.80. While the Shanghai Composite moved...

Canadian dollar

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEThe Canadian dollar is currently steady. The loonie is slightly weaker against the US dollar, euro and the British pound, while strengthening against the Australian dollar. Last week, the Canadian dollar traded in a wide range but ended the week close to unchanged. The recent rebound in the currency has been accompanied by fairly low trading volumes, a bearish sign that suggests a lack of conviction. Today's USD/CAD trading range is 1.3070 - 1.3390.  Looking at recent NAFTA-related news, Mexican and Canadian finance ministers said that they were optimistic for a resolution to NAFTA talks following this weekend's G20 summit. Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said that he sensed "op...

Gold

Outlook
Bearish
DAILY UPDATEGold is steady today. Last week, the precious metal suffered another week of losses. After making its most recent bottom around $1,210, gold found buyers and managed to rebound towards $1,230. Note that trading volumes increased significantly last week, a sign that bears continue to sell the precious metal with conviction. While gold typically trades as a function of changes in the US dollar and in US Treasury bond yields, this has not been the case in recent history. Both the US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields were mostly unchanged last week. Today’s gold trading range is $1,212 - $1,240. Looking at gold today, the precious metal is steady. The buck is slightly weaker as it e...

Crude oil

Outlook
Neutral
DAILY UPDATECrude oil prices are currently slightly higher. Both WTI and Brent crude are currently making gains. Last week, both WTI and Brent ended the week down. In recent history, sell-offs in crude oil have been accompanied by above-average trading volumes. Conversely, trading volumes have been fairly weak when crude oil prices strengthen. This is a sign that traders are increasingly bearish on the commodity. As a result, we downgraded our outlook on WTI to neutral last week. Today's WTI trading range is $67.0 - $71.20.  There are no significant developments with regards to either crude oil supply or demand today. Last Friday, the Baker Hughes oil rig count fell by five rigs. The oil rig count...

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are significant changes in Japanese yen, gold and Canadian dollar net positions. Looking at our implied measure of US dollar positioning (the inverse of net positions in other major currencies), speculators increased their bets on the US dollar for the fifth week in a row. The significant drop in both Japanese yen and gold net positions …

Published 

There are few notable changes in speculator positions according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report. The build-up in long US dollar positions has slowed this week, relative to the significant growth we saw in recent history. This being said, speculators continued to buy the US dollar this week while reducing their positions in all other major currencies (except the Swiss franc). The bigge…

Published 

There are a very significant number of changes in this week’s Commitments of Traders Report. The biggest change can be seen in speculator net positions in the US dollar. As the world’s benchmark currency, the big move in the dollar is influencing other major currencies and commodities. As a result, there are significant changes in net positions in the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Australian…

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are relatively few changes in net speculator positions across major currencies and commodities. The biggest change in positions can be seen in the Japanese yen, where speculators continue to flip-flop. As we wrote in last week’s edition of this report, traders remain undecided regarding the future direction of the yen.

Published 

Changes in positions are relatively limited in this week’s Commitments of Traders Report. The biggest changes in speculator net positions can be seen in the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Speculators have reduced their net short positions in both currencies this week. Changes in other major currencies and commodities are fairly limited. Looking at extremes in speculator positioning, the Swiss…

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators continue to decrease their bets in currencies and commodities inversely correlated to the US dollar. The biggest changes in positions this week can be seen in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and gold. Speculators dumped safe havens (including the franc and the yen), while adding to positions in gold and the Canadian …

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators remain long currencies that are depreciating against the US dollar. This is particularly true for euro speculators. The biggest changes in speculator positions this week can be seen in the US dollar index and the Japanese yen. While net positions in the yen flipped to positive last week, they are once again negative this week.

Published 

In this week’s Commitments of Trader’s Report, speculators continue to sell assets inversely correlated to the US dollar. The biggest changes can be seen in falling speculator net positions in the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and gold. Net positions in other assets inversely correlated to the dollar including the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and crude oil are also lower thi…

Published 

In our last take on the outlook for gold, we wrote that the combination of slowing growth outside the United States and rising inflation meant more weakness lay in store for the precious metal. When both US growth and inflation are high, the Fed is more likely to raise rates with the aid of supportive data. In an environment where US growth is outperforming its major peers, the US dollar also ten…

Published 
Tags: Gold

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, speculators are selling inflation-sensitive currencies including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The British pound remains out of favor following both poor economic data and weak guidance from the Bank of England. Finally, speculators also dumped positions in the Australian dollar, thanks to ongoing US-China trade tensions. The net resul…

Published 

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