Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities are fairly limited. The most substantial changes can be seen in the US dollar index, British pound and Japanese yen. Net positions for all three currencies were up this week. While speculator positions in the US dollar index are up this week, they are falling based on o…

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In our previous piece on pound sterling, we wrote that the currency was likely to weaken thanks to (1) slowing growth across Europe, (2) excessively bullish speculator sentiment and (3) Brexit-related woes. Thanks to the UK’s significant trading ties with the EU, we wrote that the pound was unlikely to escape a slowdown across the region. Furthermore, speculator positioning in the pound looked ex…

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities are relatively limited. Speculators continue buying the US dollar, with positioning in both the US dollar index contract and our implied measure of US dollar positioning rising this week. In general, commodities are increasingly out of favor while speculators are now net…

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The Canadian dollar is the best performing major ‘risk on’ currency this year. Against the US dollar, the loonie is down by 4.5% this year. This beats all other major ‘risk on’ currencies including the euro (-5.3%), British pound (-5.9%) and the Australian dollar (-6.9%). In our last commentary, we argued that the outlook for the Canadian dollar was neutral thanks to rising crude oil prices and …

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On August 10, we downgraded our outlook on WTI from neutral to bearish thanks to a significant deterioration of the trend. We determine trends for a number of major currencies and commodities based on price, trading volumes and changes in volatility. Following WTI’s latest top at $75.37/barrel, sell-offs in the commodity have been accompanied by accelerating trading volumes. This is a...

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Tags: Crude oil

In our previous commentary on gold, we wrote that gold prices would keep falling for three reasons: (1) accelerating US inflation, (2) decelerating growth outside the United States and (3) an ongoing slowdown across emerging markets. Ultimately, all three factors were supportive for the US dollar, gold’s ultimate nemesis. Since that time (May 17), gold prices have weakened from around $1,290 to $…

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Tags: Gold

In our last commentary on the Australian dollar, we wrote that the currency was an enticing short opportunity thanks to slowing Chinese growth and a bearish trend. Specifically, we recommended shorting AUD/USD as means to express a bearish view on the currency. Since that time, the pair has weakened (from 0.7560), and is trading around 0.7280 on August 13.  Going forward, we see further...

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Trader’s Report, the biggest changes in speculator positions can be seen in the US dollar index, British pound, Canadian dollar and gold. “Risk on” currencies, such as the euro and the Australian dollar, remain unattractive relative to the US dollar. Even traditional safe haven assets, such as gold and the Swiss franc, are presently no match for the dollar. T…

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In our last commentary on the US dollar, we wrote that the buck was set to move higher given underlying economic trends. Specifically, US growth and inflation was likely to keep accelerating, while the opposite was likely to happen in most major regions outside the United States. Following the publication of our last commentary, the US dollar index has strengthened from around 91.80 to around...

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Tags: US dollar

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, the biggest change in speculator positions can be seen in the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. Following several weeks of rising net positions in the US dollar (a sign that the investor community is increasingly bullish on the currency), changes were relatively limited this week. In the short-term, the US dollar’s ongoing ascent appe…

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