Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, notable changes include rising net speculator positions in the Japanese yen, British pound and Australian dollar. US dollar net positions also fell significantly this week. While crude oil remains at a bullish extreme (looking at 36-month trailing averages, and net positions as a proportion of total open interest), our implied measure of US do…

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, notable changes include rising net positions in the USD index and the Swiss franc, and falling net positions in the Australian dollar and gold. Similar to last week, the only asset under our coverage that remains at an extreme is crude oil. The commodity is currently at a bullish extreme, based on trailing 36-month average net positions and lo…

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Looking at the most recent Commitments of Traders report, notable changes include rising US dollar index and Swiss franc net positions, and falling Australian dollar net positions. Crude oil remains at a bullish extreme this week, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest. The purpose of this weekly report is to track how the consensus …

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Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, notable changes include falling net short positions in the Japanese yen and falling net long positions in gold. Changes in other major currencies and commodities were fairly limited. Crude oil remains at a bullish extreme this week, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest. The purpo…

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We take a closer look at the Australian dollar forecast, and how domestic and international economic changes are set to impact the currency. From China's slow down to key domestic indicators that reveal slowing growth, we break down why we're changing our outlook on this commodity currency.

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Improving growth and falling political risk are pushing the Euro higher, but constant changes in the landscape put this movement at risk. Significant declining trends will impact the euro forecast - and speculators and traders should take note of the increased risk. 

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Tags: Euro

Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, the only notable changes were relating to net positions in the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British pound. Changes in positioning were fairly limited for the US dollar, euro, gold and crude oil. Crude oil positions, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest, remains at a bullish ex…

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Following the global stock market sell-off earlier this month, the euro was quick to recover most of its losses in a short period of time. While other currencies (such as the Australian dollar or the British pound) never fully recovered, there was no shortage of dip buyers looking to go long the euro. Looking at EUR/USD, it took just four trading days to recover to the critical 1.25 level after t…

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Tags: Euro

Since early 2017, gold has strengthened from lows below $1,080 to around $1,340 today. The underlying factors that have helped gold strengthen since that time remain intact. We argue that gold should continue strengthening in the longer-term thanks to (1) moderate sentiment, (2) continued weakness in the US dollar, and (3) a weak outlook for real interest rates. While recent price action is somew…

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Tags: Gold

Following an eventful week in financial markets, this week’s Commitments of Traders report shows quite a few significant changes. Firstly, net long positions in the euro and the British pound are no longer at bullish extremes. Secondly, open interest in most currencies and commodities (except the yen) has fallen substantially. Following intense volatility, traders are more hesitant to maintain la…

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