In our previous piece on pound sterling, we wrote that the currency was likely to weaken thanks to (1) slowing growth across Europe, (2) excessively bullish speculator sentiment and (3) Brexit-related woes. Thanks to the UK’s significant trading ties with the EU, we wrote that the pound was unlikely to escape a slowdown across the region. Furthermore, speculator positioning in the pound looked ex…

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In our previous analysis on the pound, we claimed that the number of catalysts driving the currency’s bullish trend were running out. At the time, we warned that the rally was running out of momentum, but did not see any evidence that would suggest adopting a bearish stance. Following recent weakness in the British pound, we downgraded our longer-term outlook on the currency to bearish on April 2…

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The outlook for the pound, while still bullish, is looking less optimistic today. More specifically, factors including the ongoing slowdown in regional growth, lower expectations for a May rate hike, and significant speculator interest in the currency are hampering the rally. Following Brexit, the trade-weighted value of pound sterling (a measure of GBP relative to other currencies) hit an all-t…

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Looking at the British pound today, concerns regarding Brexit and the stock market rout are outweighing the Bank of England’s positive economic outlook. As a currency that benefits from rising risk appetite, pound sterling has been selling off sharply in February thanks to fears regarding elevated asset prices. While Bank of England Governor Mark Carney helped the pound last Thursday after saying…

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In our last take on the British pound in early January, we wrote that the currency was set to keep strengthening thanks to strong regional growth, moderate sentiment and the historically low value of the pound. More specifically, the currency looks cheap based on broad nominal effective exchange rates (a measure of the pound relative to other foreign currencies). Looking at GBP/USD since our last…

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Looking at this week’s COT report, the British pound is now at a bullish extreme, while the Australian dollar is no longer at a bearish extreme. Bullish extremes continue in long euro and long crude oil speculator net positions. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions become crowded in either direct…

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After a great performance in 2017, the good times for the British pound look set to continue. While manufacturing and construction PMIs announced earlier this week missed expectations, services PMIs beat optimistic expectations. Given the forward-looking nature of PMI surveys, upcoming GDP growth should remain strong. As services dominate the UK’s exports, this news was well-received in foreign e…

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The last time the pound looked stretched was due to rate hike expectations, but this time Brexit is in the driver’s seat. According to the BBC, deals have been struck in recent days relating to the size of the divorce bill and EU citizen’s rights in the UK. Hopes are also rising for an Irish border deal following comments from Ireland’s foreign minister who suggested a deal was “doable” prior to …

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With the Bank of England rate hike in the rear view mirror, the British pound is in search of a new narrative to drive future trading. In an earlier commentary, we wrote that economic data and central bank policy are now in the backseat as the Brexit deadline approaches. Looking at speculator sentiment, traders are no longer at extremes in the currency, meaning that the pound can go either way. T…

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The term ‘uncertainty’ has been used to describe the pound ever since the UK voted to leave the European Union. Despite the fact that one and a half years have passed since the vote, the outlook for the pound remains deeply uncertain. Looking at the pound in recent history, the currency has been mostly trading in a range. While it has strengthened from its lows earlier this year, the currency is …

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