The Australian dollar continues to fall this week. While weakness in the currency was initially catalyzed by comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (suggesting a low likelihood of future interest rate hikes), the currency has remained weak thanks to falling commodity prices and the Chinese yuan. The Aussie has been particularly weak against the US dollar, which has benefited from rising interest rate hike expectations and Trump's plans for tax reforms.
AUD/USD is currently trading below 0.7820, having started the week closer to 0.7960. While the Aussie strengthened sharply against the euro on Monday (following German elections results over the weekend), the currency has since given up much of those gains. The pair is now trading just below 1.50. The Aussie has also lose ground against the pound for most of this week, with GBP/AUD trading above 1.71 this morning.
This is a very slow week for economic data in Australia. This Friday we'll see housing credit and private sector credit data - both of which are unlikely to influence the currency.
From a medium term perspective, we are downgrading the Aussie to bearish on continuing weakness. The Aussie has weakened in the last three weeks of September, and continues to sell off. The currency is weakening for a variety of reasons including the limited possibility of future interest rate hikes and weakness in China's economy. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie has re-entered normal trading conditions having been overbought for most of September. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.