The Australian dollar has been mostly rising today, after hitting oversold conditions earlier in the week. We mentioned yesterday that 0.78 is an area of heavy resistance for AUD/USD. Looking at yesterday's trading action, the pair managed to bounce off those levels up to 0.7850 this morning. In the past few weeks, the currency has been selling off thanks to weakness in the Chinese yuan (China is the country's biggest trading partner) and in industrial commodity prices.
The Aussie has lost some ground against the euro today, with EUR/AUD now below 1.50. The exchange rate is currently close to 1.4960. Finally, the Australian dollar has sold off against the pound, with GBP/AUD now trading below 1.6880.
On Monday, we saw fairly strong manufacturing survey data (54.2) and strong inflation figures as well (2.5% YoY). Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and statement was a non-event, as we covered in our preview. Finally on Thursday, we'll see retail sales, trade balance and construction survey data.
From a medium term perspective, we are downgrading the Aussie to bearish on continuing weakness. The Aussie has weakened in the last three weeks of September, and continues to sell off. The currency is weakening for a variety of reasons including the limited possibility of future interest rate hikes and weakness in China's economy. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie has re-entered normal trading conditions having been overbought for most of September. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.