AUD Daily Updates

20 October 2017

The Australian dollar is down versus the US dollar and the pound today, while rising against the euro and the yen. There has been limited news that has influenced the Aussie in the last 24 hours. Thanks to recent political events in New Zealand, most investors have been more focused on the New Zealand dollar. Yesterday, the currency gained on stronger-than expected employment figures and lower-than-expected unemployment numbers. Chinese data was also strong, with industrial production and retail sales beating expectations.  

AUD/USD is currently trading below 0.7850. Looking at EUR/AUD, the pair is currently just above 1.5050. Finally, the pound is up against AUD this morning thanks to hopes for a Brexit deal. The GBP/AUD exchange rate is currently above 1.680.   

This is a fairly light week for the Aussie in terms of economic data. RBA minutes suggest that monetary policy remains in neutral. The Bank sees a strong economy but subdued inflation. Changes in employment (19.8 vs 15k expected) and the unemployment rate (5.5% vs 5.6% expected) beat expectations. Last week, consumer and business confidence surveys as well as housing loans numbers were above expectations.  

Updated 
Outlook
Neutral

After a strong performance in the second week of October, we are upgrading the Australian dollar to neutral. The currency is rebounding thanks to strength in the Chinese yuan (China is the country's biggest trading partner) and the broader Chinese economy. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie has re-entered normal trading conditions having been overbought for most of September. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.  

Updated