The Australian dollar is flat this morning, after weakening sharply last Friday. In general, the currency has been weak as lower economic growth and falling bond yields diminish the attractiveness of the Australian dollar. Falling prices for industrial commodities following the conclusion of the 19th Party Congress in China is also weighing on the currency. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the currency remain bearish, with the caveat that the currency is looking oversold in the short-term time frame.
AUD/USD is currently flat and trading just above 0.7560. Looking at EUR/AUD, the pair is down and currently just above 1.5560. The GBP/AUD is higher and the exchange rate is currently above 1.750.
This is a very light week for economic data releases relating to the Australian dollar. On Tuesday, we’ll see the RBA’s meeting minutes and hear a speech from Governor Philip Lowe. Last week, wage growth and employment changes missed expectations.
After weakening sharply in the latter half of October, we are downgrading the Australian dollar further to bearish. The currency is weak thanks to lower-than-expected inflation rates and falling Australian bond yields. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie has re-entered normal trading conditions having been overbought for most of September. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.