The Australian dollar remains fairly weak and continues to sell off alongside the Chinese yuan. The currency continues to suffer thanks to poor economic data, falling rate hike expectations and concerns regarding a slowdown in China. Looking at recent data, AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index figures for November were higher than the previous print (57.3 vs. 51.1 prior), but failed to meaningfully ignite the currency. Thanks to its outsized trading relationship with China, the Australian dollar is weak even relating to other commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD is currently down and trading just above 0.7570. Looking at EUR/AUD, the pair is flat and currently just above 1.5730. The GBP/AUD is up and the exchange rate is currently above 1.7850.
This is a very light week for economic data releases relating to the Australian dollar. AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index was much stronger than the previous print (57.3 vs. 51.1 prior). Last week, the RBA’s meeting minutes suggested "considerable uncertainty" regarding future inflation and cautioned against strength in the currency.
As the Australian dollar continues to sell off following China's 19th Party Congress, we are downgrading the currency to bearish. Looking at a daily chart of the Aussie, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators.
As the currency weakens on lower rate hike expectations and slow growth, we are now bearish on the Australian dollar in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie is trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.