The Australian dollar rebound continues, particularly against the US dollar. The currency is flat this morning against the euro and the British pound. RBA minutes released earlier today suggested more confidence in Australia's economic outlook. The Bank pointed to improving economic data, although weakness in consumer spending was noted as a "significant risk". As AUD/USD is currently trading above 0.76, the next area of resistance is around 0.79. Given weakness in the US dollar (and the poor outlook thanks to falling inflation), the Australian dollar can continue making gains in the short-term. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish.
AUD/USD is currently up and trading just above 0.7670. Looking at EUR/AUD, the pair is up and currently just above 1.5380. The GBP/AUD exchange rate is flat and currently above 1.7440.
This is a very light week for economic data and events relating to the Australian dollar. The government’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook projected a shrinking budget deficit. The RBA’s meeting minutes highlighted confidence regarding the future while noting weakness in consumer spending. Last week, employment changes beat expectations by a wide margin.
As the Australian dollar strengthens on good economic data, we are upgrading the currency to neutral. Looking at a daily chart of the Aussie, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators.
As the currency weakens on lower rate hike expectations and slow growth, we are now bearish on the Australian dollar in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie is trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.