AUD Daily Updates

16 January 2018

The Australian dollar is mostly mixed today. The currency is currently flat against the US dollar and the British pound, while gaining against the euro. AUD/USD continues to look overbought on a daily chart, and we expect a short-term pull back in the near future as a result. Looking at recent data, new motor vehicle sales were quite strong, suggesting a positive outlook for upcoming retail sales figures. As vehicle purchases are positively correlated to positive consumer sentiment, tomorrow's consumer sentiment figures should be upbeat. Our medium-term outlook on the currency remains neutral, while our short-term outlook is bullish. 

AUD/USD is currently flat and trading just above 0.7950. EUR/AUD is down and trading above 1.5370. GBP/AUD is flat and trading above 1.730. 

This is a very light week for economic data relating to the Australian dollar. We'll get consumer sentiment, investment lending for homes and home loans on tomorrow. Thursday is the big day, and we'll get employment figures as well as HIA new home sales. Last week, retail sales beat expectations by a significant margin. 

Short term outlook

As the Australian dollar strengthens thanks to strong commodity prices and global growth, we are upgrading the currency to bullish. Looking at a daily chart of the Aussie, the currency is now looking overbought. This is based on various technical indicators.  

Medium term outlook

As the Australian dollar rebounds thanks to strong global growth, we are now neutral on the Australian dollar in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie is trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.