AUD Daily Updates

12 February 2018

The Australian dollar is fairly mixed today. Last week, the currency sold off sharply thanks to the global stock market rout. After the S&P 500 rebounded by 1.49% last Friday, the Australian dollar began recouping some of its losses. While AUD was higher earlier today, weakness in Asian stock markets this morning has not helped the currency. The Australian dollar is mostly mixed as a result. Looking at data, upcoming employment figures should provide more cues for the currency. While the Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold, the bank expects employment to improve in 2018. If the figures are below consensus estimates, expect the currency to weaken. Our short-term outlook on the currency is neutral, while our medium-term outlook remains bullish.  

AUD/USD is flat and trading just above 0.7810. EUR/AUD is up slightly and trading above 1.5690. GBP/AUD is flat and trading above 1.770.

Looking at economic data from Australia this week, traders will be watching employment figures. Tomorrow, we'll see NAB business confidence numbers. On Wednesday, we'll get Westpac consumer confidence data. Thursday is the most important day, and we'll see employment changes, the unemployment rate and consumer inflation expectations. On Friday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech. Last week, the trade balance was significantly below estimates thanks to higher-than-expected imports. 

Updated 
Short term outlook
Neutral

As the Australian dollar runs out of steam, we are downgrading the currency to neutral. Looking at a daily chart of the Aussie, the currency is trading within a normal range. This is based on various technical indicators.  

Medium term outlook
Bullish

As the Australian dollar rebounds, we are now bullish on the Australian dollar in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie is trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.  

Updated