The Australian dollar is mixed today. The Australian dollar is currently strengthening against the US dollar and the Canadian dollar, while weakening against the British pound. Last week, the currency sold off as fears of a global trade war accelerated. While China implemented tariffs on a range of US goods today (a story we covered in our US dollar daily update), reactions in the Australian dollar have been fairly limited.
Turning to economic news, reactions in the currency were also limited following official Chinese manufacturing PMIs (which beat expectations) and private Caixin manufacturing PMIs (which were lower than expectations). Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the Australian dollar remain bearish.
AUD/USD is flat today and trading just above 0.7680. EUR/AUD is flat and trading above 1.6040. GBP/AUD is up and trading above 1.8290.
Looking at economic data from Australia this week, important events include an RBA meeting and announcement relating to retail sales and the trade balance. Year-over-year TD Securities inflation for March (2.1%) came in line with previous figures. Note that today is a public holiday in Australia (Easter Monday). Tomorrow is the most important day, and we’ll see the AiG performance of manufacturing index. We’ll also see the RBA’s rate statement and interest rate decision. The Bank is expected to remain on hold. Finally, we’ll see RBA commodity index figures for March. On Wednesday, we’ll see retail sales and building permits. Finally, on Friday, we’ll see the AiG performance of services index and the trade balance. Last week, HIA new home sales were ahead of expectations.
As the Australian dollar runs out of steam, we are now bearish on the Australian dollar in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the Aussie is trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.