GBP Daily Updates

28 September 2017

The pound has been bearish to neutral this week. The currency continues to lose against the US dollar, which has benefited from rising interest rate hike expectations and optimism towards Trump's tax reform plans. While the pound initially strengthened against the euro earlier in the week, it has since been trading sideways against the common currency. There has been limited news from the UK that has influenced the currency this week. Last week, the pound sold off modestly following Theresa May's Brexit speech (which failed to meet the market's high expectations) and a sovereign credit downgrade by Moody's. 

GBP/USD continues to weaken and is currently trading below 1.3340. The pair began the week closer to 1.35. After falling on Monday and Tuesday earlier in the week, EUR/GBP has been trading sideways for the past two days. The exchange rate is currently close to 0.87740. The pound has done well against commodity currencies including the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar this week. GBP/AUD has climbed to 1.71 today, while GBP/CAD is trading above 1.6650. 

This week's economic data releases include consumer confidence and final GDP figures. On Thursday we'll get consumer confidence figures. GDP figures, set to be announced on Friday, will be watched closely as the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise rates in the near future.

Updated 
Short term outlook
Neutral

The British pound is back to neutral. The pound initially weakened on September 22, following Theresa May's Brexit speech which disappointed markets and a Moody's downgrade of the UK's sovereign debt. Since then, the pound has mostly traded sideways or weakened mildly. Having been in overbought conditions for some time, we now believe the pound has re-entered normal trading conditions. This is based on various technical indicators when looking at a daily chart. 

Medium term outlook
Bullish

The latest pound bull market began in early September, following indications from the Bank of England that interest rates were set to rise later this year. While we remain bullish in the medium term, the picture is more mixed today with the currency weakening in the last two weeks of September. The pound also looks overbought on a range of technical indicators, thus the medium-term bull market is likely to be near its end. 

Updated