GBP Daily Updates

11 April 2018

Pound sterling is once again mostly higher today. The British pound is currently strengthening against all major currencies except the euro and the Japanese yen. Looking at the currency against the US dollar, GBP/USD has now strengthened for the last four trading sessions in a row. Yesterday, the pound ended the day higher thanks to easing trade war concerns and strong UK retail sales data. 

Looking at the latest news, today's Brexit headlines have a limited impact on foreign exchange markets. According to Bloomberg, most British businesses are in favor of keeping the EU's regulations in order to maintain access to the Single Market. Turning to economic data, upcoming figures including industrial production and the goods trade balance should provide further cues regarding UK economic growth this year. Following recent strength, we will upgrade our short-term outlook on the pound to bullish later today. Our medium-term outlook remains bullish. 

GBP/USD is currently above 1.4190. EUR/GBP is flat, with the exchange rate above 0.8710. The pound is up against the Australian dollar and flat against the Canadian dollar. GBP/AUD is currently above 1.8320, while GBP/CAD is above 1.7880.

This is a fairly light week for economic data relating to the British pound. BRC retail sales (1.4% vs. -0.1% expected) were ahead of expectations. Later today, the most important day, we'll see economic data including February industrial production, February manufacturing production and the February goods trade balance. On Thursday, we'll see the BoE credit conditions survey. Last week, services PMIs missed expectations by a significant margin. 

Updated 
Short term outlook
Neutral

As the pound trades sideways, we are now neutral on the currency in the short-term. The pound is now trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators on a daily chart.  

Medium term outlook
Bullish

As the pound continues to strengthen, we are now bullish on the currency in the medium-term. The pound is now looking trading within normal conditions. This is based on a range of technical indicators looking at a weekly chart. 

Updated