The Canadian dollar is mostly mixed today, but continues to make gains against the US dollar. The currency is flat against the euro and the British pound. Yesterday, the currency strengthened following President Trump's comments that NAFTA negotiations are going "pretty well". Canada's chief negotiator also said he had high hopes for progress. According to a Reuters report, Canada and Mexico are willing to be flexible in order to accommodate US demands relating to the auto industry. Given the deep integration between the US, Canadian and Mexican economies, walking away from NAFTA would be deeply disruptive to the status quo. 75% of Canadian exports are currently destined for the United States. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the currency remain bullish.
The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently above 1.2360. The euro is flat against the Canadian dollar, with EUR/CAD currently above 1.5270. The pound is up against the Canadian dollar, with GBP/CAD trading above 1.7440.
Looking at economic data this week, markets will be watching retail sales and inflation figures. On Thursday we'll get retail sales figures. On Friday we'll see inflation numbers. Last week, the Bank of Canada raised policy rates to 1.25%.
As the Canadian dollar strengthens, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators on the Canadian dollar currency index.