The Canadian dollar is mostly weaker today. The currency is selling off against the US dollar thanks to a broad USD rebound. Looking at crude oil prices, the commodity is selling off today following strong US crude production figures last week. Both the oil rig count and the US EIA's supply estimates suggest that US crude supply is approaching all-time highs. Looking at the latest NAFTA headlines, trade negotiators are currently engaged in more substantive discussions regarding US demands. This is an improvement from previous discussions, which centered on canceling the agreement altogether. Thanks to upcoming elections in the US, Mexico and Canada, there is a risk that the discussions continue into the second half of the year. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the currency remain bullish.
The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently above 1.2340. The euro is up against the Canadian dollar, with EUR/CAD currently above 1.5340. The pound is flat against the Canadian dollar, with GBP/CAD trading above 1.7430.
This is a fairly light week for economic data relating to the Canadian dollar. On Wednesday, we’ll see November GDP growth figures. We’ll also see industrial product prices and raw material prices. On Thursday, we’ll get the Markit manufacturing PMI. Last week, retail sales missed estimates while headline inflation met estimates.
As the Canadian dollar rallies, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators on a daily chart of the Canadian dollar, the currency is now trading within a normal range.
As the Canadian dollar strengthens, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators on the Canadian dollar currency index.