The Canadian dollar is mixed today. Last Friday, the currency strengthened as the S&P 500 enjoyed a rebound. As the stock market rout appeared to come to an end, the Canadian dollar rallied accordingly. Turning to economic data, the currency shrugged off poor jobs numbers last Friday. According to recent figures, jobs fell by 90,000 last week, led by 137,000 reductions in part-time employment. Job losses were the largest in Ontario (Canada's largest province), which recently hiked minimum wages. Turning to NAFTA, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has recently ended his tour of various North American cities. Trudeau stated that "there is a clear path forward" on NAFTA, despite the difficulties of negotiating the treaty. Last week, Trudeau stated that he would be willing to walk away from a bad deal while speaking in Chicago. Trudeau also stated that he didn't “think anyone can now entirely predict" the outcome of the talks. Our short-term outlook is neutral, while our medium-term outlook remains bullish.
The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently above 1.2560. The euro is up slightly against the Canadian dollar, with EUR/CAD currently above 1.5420. The pound is up against the Canadian dollar, with GBP/CAD trading above 1.7420.
This is a very light week for economic data from Canada. On Friday, we'll see manufacturing sales figures. Last week, trade balances and changes in employment were below expectations.
As the Canadian dollar runs out of steam, we are downgrading the currency to neutral in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators on a daily chart of the Canadian dollar, the currency is now trading within a normal range.
As the Canadian dollar strengthens, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators on the Canadian dollar currency index.