The Canadian dollar is weakening today, as the global stock market rebound runs out of steam. In general, riskier assets such as stocks and commodities are doing poorly today, which is driving down the Canadian dollar. CAD is currently selling off against safe haven currencies such as the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The loonie is flat against the euro and the British pound. The US dollar is strengthening today, alongside most global government bonds. Safe haven assets such as the US dollar and government bonds typically rally when risk sentiment is weak. Turning to NAFTA discussions, top US and Mexican officials are cautiously optimistic that NAFTA can be renegotiated. The seventh round of negotiations will take place in Mexico City starting on February 25. As Mexican presidential elections are set to take place in July, there is a likelihood that talks will have to be postponed until later this year. Our short-term outlook on the Canadian dollar is neutral, while our medium-term outlook remains bullish.
The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently above 1.2540. The euro is flat against the Canadian dollar, with EUR/CAD currently above 1.5590. The pound is also flat against the Canadian dollar, with GBP/CAD trading above 1.7570.
This is a very light week for economic data from Canada. Manufacturing sales figures missed expectations by a significant degree (-0.3% vs. 0.2% expected). Last week, trade balances and changes in employment were below expectations.
As the Canadian dollar runs out of steam, we are downgrading the currency to neutral in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators on a daily chart of the Canadian dollar, the currency is now trading within a normal range.
As the Canadian dollar strengthens, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators on the Canadian dollar currency index.