Crude oil Daily Updates

23 April 2018

Crude oil prices are flat today - both WTI and Brent crude are currently trading sideways. Last week, the commodity surged alongside improving risk sentiment and falling US crude oil inventories. As crude oil has recently made a higher-high, the commodity remains in a firmly bullish trend. 

Turning to recent news and data, US oil producers added five rigs last week, bringing the total number of producing rigs to 820. According to recent US EIA figures, US crude production is currently running at 10.54m barrels per day (second only to Russia at 11m barrels per day). While many commentators claimed that crude oil prices would be unable to strengthen thanks to rapidly accelerating US supply, this has not been the case. Ahead of expected US sanctions on Iran (May 12) and increasing US diplomatic action against Venezuela and Russia, crude oil prices are expected to stay supported. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on crude remains bullish.  

WTI is currently trading above $68.0. Brent crude is currently above $73.70.

Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (April 18) showed falling crude oil stocks and falling gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories fell (-1.1m vs. -1.4m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-3.0m vs. -0.3m expected) while distillate stocks (-3.0m vs. -0.4m expected) were also down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices strengthened following the EIA report.

Short term outlook

As crude oil makes gains, we are now bullish on the commodity. Note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart. 

Medium term outlook

As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions.