After peaking earlier this week, both WTI and Brent crude continue to fall. WTI is currently trading above $50, close to $52. Meanwhile, Brent crude has fallen below $58 and is currently trading near $57.60. While oil prices initially rallied on falling global stocks and US refinery demand, prices breached overbought conditions and have since weakened.
Given the 'swing producer' nature of the US shale industry, Reuters has reported that shale oil exports from the US have surged recently thanks to rising prices. Oil bears continue to believe that price gains will be capped by the sheer quantity of supply available via US shale oil despite OPEC's supply cuts. The commodity has also fallen thanks to strength in the US dollar, which is benefiting from rising interest rate hike expectations and Trump's plans for tax reforms.
In political news, while supply disruptions were expected from the Kurdish vote outcome (news agencies report that 92% of the region backs independence from Iraq), disruptions have yet to take place. Both Iraq and Turkey have threatened to cut off an independent Kurdistan's ability to export oil.
After peaking on September 25, both Brent crude and WTI prices have fallen and are trading sideways. Despite fears of violence in Iraq's Kurdistan region and falling oil stocks, crude oil has been unable to continue its bullish momentum. We warned that crude oil looked overbought last week, based on various technical indicators when looking at a daily chart. This remains true today, and we expect the commodity to ultimately return to normal trading conditions in the coming days.
Crude oil remains bullish in the medium term, having rallied from its most recent lows in the first week of June. The commodity has continued to soar for a variety of factors, including falling oil stocks, refinery demand following hurricane-related disruptions in the US, and hope for an extension of the OPEC supply cuts. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, crude oil is starting to look overbought, but remains within normal trading conditions.