Crude oil Daily Updates

13 October 2017

Crude oil prices are up this morning, after a weak day yesterday. The US EIA yesterday reported a stronger-than-expected fall in US oil inventories. This is helping the current 'rebalancing' narrative as oil stocks fall around the world. In other news, OPEC increased its supply to its second-highest level in September, thanks to increases from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq. However, it also increased its 2017 oil demand forecast to 1.5m bpd, helping to support oil prices. According to OPEC, demand from emerging markets (and particularly in China) remains strong. 

This morning, both Brent crude and WTI are up. WTI remains above $50, and is currently trading just above $51.30. Brent crude is currently above $57.00. After entering overbought conditions two weeks ago, crude oil is now trading within a normal range. 

Short term outlook

After rising sharply on October 10, we are upgrading crude oil to bullish. Saudi Arabia recently committed to reducing exports in November while significant US offshore production remains offline. We earlier warned that crude oil looked overbought in the last week of September, based on various technical indicators when looking at a daily chart. Since then, the commodity has returned to normal trading conditions. 

Medium term outlook

After running out of momentum following its recent peak on September 25, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral. The referendum in Kurdish Iraq has failed to ignite the commodity, while US oil production and exports continue to grow following Hurricane Harvey. While oil stocks around the world continue to fall, this has had a limited influence on prices in the last few weeks. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, crude oil is starting to look overbought, but remains within normal trading conditions.