Crude oil is falling again this morning, after falling yesterday. While yesterday's EIA data showed falling refined product stocks (gasoline and distillate fuel), crude oil inventories rose above expectations (0.86m vs. -2.49m expected). While crude was down slightly on the news, it was also helped by comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister who re-affirmed a commitment to ending the global supply glut. In other news, tensions in the Kurdish region of Iraq are falling after the regional government offered to suspend their independence referendum and proposed an immediate ceasefire. Shipments of crude oil from the Kirkuk region fell following Iraq's military operations last week.
WTI remains above $50, and is currently trading just below $52.0. Brent crude is currently above $58.30. After entering overbought conditions two weeks ago, crude oil is now once again approaching overbought conditions.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (October 25) showed falling crude oil stocks and rising gasoline inventories. While crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose (+0.86m vs. -2.49m expected), gasoline stocks (5.46m vs. -1m expected) and distillate stocks (-5.2m vs. -0.5m expected) were down sharply . US crude inventories have been falling for the past few weeks. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices were steady following the EIA report.
After running out of steam following rising US crude inventories, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral. After looking overbought in early October, both Brent and WTI are now approaching overbought conditions again. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
Thanks to ongoing crude oil strength, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Prices are rising as crude stocks continue to fall around the world, despite rising US exports that are driving concerns regarding future supply. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, Brent crude is looking overbought while WTI is trading within normal conditions.