While yesterday's EIA crude stocks only missed estimates by a small margin, that was enough to send both WTI and Brent crude oil down for the day. Crude oil remains weak this morning, and continues to sell off. We have been warning that crude oil looks overbought in the short-term. This remains the case today, and as such, crude prices remain particularly sensitive to any negative news and data.
WTI is currently trading just above $54.0. Brent crude is currently above $60.20. Both WTI and Brent crude are looking overbought in the short-term. While this does not suggest an imminent pullback, it does suggest caution going forward.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 1) showed falling crude oil stocks and gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories fell, but were higher than expectations (-2.4m vs. -2.5m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-4.0m vs. -1.6m expected) and distillate stocks (-0.3m vs. -2.1m expected) were also down. US crude inventories have been falling for the past few weeks. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices fell following the EIA report.
After pulling back from overbought conditions, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral. Note that both Brent and WTI remain in overbought conditions today. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
Thanks to ongoing crude oil strength, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Prices are rising as crude stocks continue to fall around the world, despite rising US exports that are driving concerns regarding future supply. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, Brent crude is looking overbought while WTI is trading within normal conditions.