Despite looking overbought in the short-term time frame, crude oil prices have been making small gains. WTI managed to breach $55 earlier today, but has since fallen below that figure. Brent continues to trade around $61 per barrel. According to a recent report in Reuters, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said that demand growth continues to run ahead of supply, while compliance with OPEC's supply cuts has been "excellent". Recent data shows that US crude stockpiles continue to decline despite accelerating production.
WTI is currently trading just above $54.70. Brent crude is currently above $60.70. Both WTI and Brent crude are looking overbought in the short-term. While this does not suggest an imminent pullback, it does suggest caution going forward.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 1) showed falling crude oil stocks and gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories fell, but were higher than expectations (-2.4m vs. -2.5m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-4.0m vs. -1.6m expected) and distillate stocks (-0.3m vs. -2.1m expected) were also down. US crude inventories have been falling for the past few weeks. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices fell following the EIA report.
After pulling back from overbought conditions, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral. Note that both Brent and WTI remain in overbought conditions today. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
Thanks to ongoing crude oil strength, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Prices are rising as crude stocks continue to fall around the world, despite rising US exports that are driving concerns regarding future supply. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, Brent crude is looking overbought while WTI is trading within normal conditions.