Crude oil still looks overbought looking at a daily chart, and has been weakening. The commodity initially sold off last Friday after the latest Baker Hughes report showed the number of US oil rigs climbing to 738 (up by 9 rigs). Seen as a proxy for US crude oil supply, rising rig counts are bad news for crude oil prices, and the commodity sold off as a result. This morning, the commodity remains weak. Looking at news this weekend, Bahrain blamed Iran-supported militants for blowing up an oil pipeline according to a report from Reuters. Following last weekend's anti-corruption purge in Saudi Arabia, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.
WTI is currently trading just above $56.70. Brent crude is currently above $63.50.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 8) showed rising crude oil stocks and falling gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher, despite estimates that expected falling stocks (+2.2m vs. -2.9m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-3.3m vs. -2.0m expected) and distillate stocks (-3.4m vs. -1.4m expected) were also down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices fell following the EIA report.
As the short-term crude oil bull market runs out of steam, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral. Note that both Brent and WTI remain in overbought conditions today. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
Thanks to ongoing crude oil strength, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Prices are rising as crude stocks continue to fall around the world, despite rising US exports that are driving concerns regarding future supply. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.