Both WTI and Brent crude oil ended higher yesterday, although prices fell following the latest EIA report. US crude stocks rose by 1.9m barrels while average estimates called for stocks to fall by 3m barrels. The picture for refined products was not much better, with gasoline stocks growing and distillates falling less than expected. As we have outlined in previous commentaries, peak draws in crude stockpiles probably occurred in the second quarter of this year. As US supply continues to accelerate into 2018, crude inventory growth should turn positive in the first quarter of 2018. Our short-term outlook on crude oil remains bearish while the commodity is no longer looking overbought.
WTI is currently trading just above $55.20. Brent crude is currently above $61.80.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 15) showed rising crude oil stocks and falling gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher, despite estimates that expected falling stocks (+1.9m vs. -3.0m expected). Gasoline stocks were up (+0.9m vs. -1.5m expected) while distillate stocks (-0.8m vs. -1.2m expected) were down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices fell following the EIA report.
After falling sharply from overbought conditions, we are downgrading crude oil to bearish. Note that both Brent and WTI are now trading within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
After falling from overbought conditions, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.