Crude oil prices have been mostly flat in the past few days, looking at both WTI and Brent crude. Based on the latest EIA data, US stockpiles have resumed growing, clouding the outlook for the crude bull market. According to Reuters, there are growing doubts regarding Russian commitment to further OPEC supply cuts. Crude prices have been supported in anticipation of the event, as the cartel is widely expected to extend supply cuts. Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, has claimed that another supply cut is necessary in order to bring crude stockpiles to their 5-year trailing average. As we have written in the past, one of OPEC's main challenges is US supply, which continues to surge. From its lows in 2016, US crude oil production is 15% higher today.
WTI is currently trading just above $55.30. Brent crude is currently above $61.30.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 15) showed rising crude oil stocks and falling gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher, despite estimates that expected falling stocks (+1.9m vs. -3.0m expected). Gasoline stocks were up (+0.9m vs. -1.5m expected) while distillate stocks (-0.8m vs. -1.2m expected) were down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices fell following the EIA report.
As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading crude oil to neutral. Note that both Brent and WTI are now trading within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
After falling from overbought conditions, we are downgrading crude oil to neutral in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.