After rising sharply yesterday, crude oil prices are down this morning. Crude oil continues to look overbought in the medium-term. Looking at news, a TransCanada pipeline will remain shut until the end of this month following an oil spill in South Dakota. As this affects one of the largest pipelines connecting Canada to the US, crude oil (and WTI in particular) rose on the news. While crude inventories were higher than estimates (according to the US EIA), the TransCanada incident and surging exports helps crude fundamentals. In the longer term, this rally is in doubt as US production surges. Looking at the latest data, the US is now the world's third biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia. If current trends continue, the US will become the world's biggest producer in 5 years.
WTI is currently trading just above $57.80. Brent crude is currently above $62.90.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 22) showed falling crude oil stocks and flat gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher than estimates (-1.9m vs. -2.2m expected). Gasoline stocks were flat (+0.0m vs. +1.0m expected) while distillate stocks (0.3m vs. -1.3m expected) were up. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices rose following the EIA report.
As crude oil rebounds on OPEC expectations, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both Brent and WTI are now trading within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds on OPEC expectations, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.