Crude oil prices fell yesterday and continue to fall this morning. Looking at recent news, Reuters is reporting that TransCanada is set to re-open the Keystone pipeline at reduced pressure later today. No details are available regarding the current throughput of the pipeline or when it will achieve full capacity. The pipeline is capable of transporting 590,000 barrels of crude per day. In other news, growing crude supply from Russia's Sakhalin region may threaten OPEC cuts. While the country has complied with the previous OPEC supply cuts, Russia has suffered from lower investment and business activity as a result. Reuters is reporting that projects in the Sakhalin region are expected to increase production by 25% (to 250,000 barrels per day) next year.
WTI is currently trading just above $57.50. Brent crude is currently above $63.60.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (November 22) showed falling crude oil stocks and flat gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher than estimates (-1.9m vs. -2.2m expected). Gasoline stocks were flat (+0.0m vs. +1.0m expected) while distillate stocks (0.3m vs. -1.3m expected) were up. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices rose following the EIA report.
As crude oil weakens following OPEC concerns and more supply, we are downgrading the commodity to neutral. Note that both Brent and WTI are now trading within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds on OPEC expectations, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.