Crude oil prices are flat this morning after surging yesterday. Brent is only $0.90 away from $70, while WTI is currently above $63. Crude prices strengthened yesterday following data from the American Petroleum Institute indicating that crude stocks are falling at a much faster pace relative to bullish estimates (-11.1m vs. -3.8 expected). Gasoline and distillate stocks were once again higher than estimates. Government figures from the US EIA are set to be announced later today. As crude oil remains at bullish extremes, there is some risk that prices fall after government data on profit taking. Looking at other news, the US EIA believes that US supply will surpass 10m barrels per day next month according to Reuters. As much of the growth will come from the Permian Basin, pipeline constraints should not be a factor for new production. While many have questioned the ongoing crude oil rally given surging US production, so far shale oil growth has failed to keep up with demand growth. Our short-term and medium-term trending indicators continue to suggest a bullish trend.
WTI is currently trading above $63.50. Brent crude is currently above $69.10.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (January 4) showed falling crude oil stocks and rising gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were lower than estimates (-7.4m vs. -5.4m expected). Gasoline stocks were up (+4.8m vs. +2.3m expected) while distillate stocks (+8.9m vs. +0.3m expected) were also up. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices were mixed following the EIA report.
As crude oil continues to make gains from pipeline closures, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both WTI and Brent are looking overbought. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds on OPEC expectations, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.