Crude oil prices are slightly lower today. The latest figures from the US Energy Information Administration show that crude production has accelerated to 9.88 million barrels per day. According to figures released last week, the number of oil rigs has increased by 12 to 759. Oil rig counts are usually seen as a proxy for supply. Canadian crude oil (including shale) production is also set to rise this year thanks to new projects such as Total's Fort Hill project. While the crude oil bull market remains intact thanks to optimism for global growth and a weak US dollar, the specter of oversupply remains a longer-term threat thanks to surging North American production. As demand continues to grow faster than supply, the crude oil bull market looks set to continue. Looking at technical indicators, Brent is no longer looking overbought on a daily chart. Our short-term and medium-term trending indicators suggest a bullish trend.
WTI is currently trading above $66.10. Brent crude is currently above $70.10.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (January 24) showed falling crude oil stocks and rising gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were lower than estimates (-1.1m vs. -2.0m expected). Gasoline stocks were up (+3.1m vs. +2.5m expected) while distillate stocks (+0.6m vs. -1.5m expected) were also up. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices rose following the EIA report.
As crude oil continues to make gains, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both WTI is looking overbought while Brent is trading within normal conditions. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.