Crude oil Daily Updates

31 January 2018

Crude oil prices are flat today. While the commodity has weakened in the past two days thanks to a rebound in the US dollar, the buck is slightly weaker today. Following the recent correction in crude oil prices, the commodity is no longer overbought on a short-term or medium-term time frame according to technical indicators. Should crude oil resume strengthening, technical resistance should be fairly limited. Looking at recent data, API figures showed crude stocks rising yesterday. Consensus estimates for EIA crude stocks (set to be announced later today) also suggest rising inventories. Crude demand from refiners may be limited in the near future thanks to the upcoming maintenance season. Thanks to strong global growth and limited crude oil supply, the crude oil bull market is intact. Our short-term and medium-term trending indicators suggest a bullish trend. 

WTI is currently trading above $64.10. Brent crude is currently above $68.0.

Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (January 24) showed falling crude oil stocks and rising gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were lower than estimates (-1.1m vs. -2.0m expected). Gasoline stocks were up (+3.1m vs. +2.5m expected) while distillate stocks (+0.6m vs. -1.5m expected) were also up. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices rose following the EIA report.

Updated 
Short term outlook
Bullish

As crude oil continues to make gains, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart. 

Medium term outlook
Bullish

As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both Brent and WTI are trading within normal conditions. 

Updated