Crude oil prices are slightly higher today. Yesterday, the commodity strengthened following weakness in the US dollar and a report showing high compliance from OPEC producers. While OPEC production increased by 100,000 barrels per day in January (to 32.4m barrels per day), compliance with the cartel's supply limits rose to 138 percent from 137 percent previously. This partially offsets widespread concerns regarding surging US crude supply. In a recent edition of the crude oil daily update, we wrote that US production is now at a multi-decade high after surpassing 10m barrels per day. As crude oil demand outpaces supply and the US dollar remains trapped in a bear market, the longer term outlook for the commodity remains positive. Our short-term and medium-term trending indicators suggest a bullish trend.
WTI is currently trading above $66.0. Brent crude is currently above $69.80.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (January 31) showed rising crude oil stocks and falling gasoline inventories. Crude oil inventories were much higher than estimates (+6.8m vs. -0.5m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-2.0m vs. +1.9m expected) while distillate stocks (-1.9m vs. -1.3m expected) were also down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices rose following the EIA report.
As crude oil continues to make gains, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both Brent and WTI are looking overbought.