Crude oil prices are rebounding today - both WTI and Brent are currently moving up. Yesterday, crude oil fell sharply during US trading hours as risk sentiment turned south. Looking at other markets, US equity markets such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ also moved lower. As expectations for global growth in 2018 decelerate, the outlook for commodities is worsening. Over the next few days, we expect to downgrade our short-term outlook to neutral.
Turning to other news, Russian production rose to an 11-month high in March. The world's top crude oil producer pumped 10.97 million barrels per day last month, up from 10.95m bpd in February according to official data. Earlier this week, crude oil prices moved higher on falling US drilling activity and concerns regarding Iranian exports. The latest US EIA figures tomorrow should provide further cues regarding US production. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on crude is currently bullish.
WTI is currently trading above $63.10. Brent crude is currently above $67.80.
Looking at US crude oil stocks, the most recent EIA figures (March 28) showed rising crude oil stocks and falling refined product inventories. Crude oil inventories were higher than estimates (+1.6m vs. +0.9m expected). Gasoline stocks were down (-3.5m vs. -2.3m expected) while distillate stocks (-2m vs. -1.5m expected) were also down. Looking at reactions in markets, crude oil prices strengthened following the EIA report.
As crude oil strengthens, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish. Note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions. This is based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As crude oil rebounds, we are upgrading the commodity to bullish in the medium-term. Looking at various technical indicators on the weekly chart, note that both WTI and Brent are trading within normal conditions.