EUR Daily Updates

13 July 2018

The euro is currently mixed, following a similar pattern seen yesterday. The euro is currently slightly lower against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, while trading slightly higher against the British pound and the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the euro ended the day flat against the US dollar on below-average trading volumes. Following a spike in activity following the ECB's last meeting in June, euro trading volumes have been easing. Today's EUR/USD trading range is 1.1510 - 1.1790. 

Following the euro's sell-off against the US dollar earlier this week (in response to higher-than-expected US inflation data), trading in the euro has been fairly lackluster. Despite a large number of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) speakers this week as well as the publication of its policy meeting accounts, reactions in foreign exchange markets have been fairly limited. Looking at economic data, the euro's reaction to fairly poor ZEW sentiment figures (a forward-looking indicator) was also fairly limited. Recent sentiment figures point to a continued deceleration in future Eurozone growth. 

Looking at quantitative factors, the euro/US dollar pair is currently trading in the middle of our indicated risk range. As the euro is currently in a bear market, we expect the pair to test the low end of our indicated trading range at some point in the near future. Our outlook on the euro remains bearish. 

EUR/USD is down slightly and trading above 1.1660. The euro is up slightly against the yen, with EUR/JPY trading above 131.30. Finally, the euro is up slightly against the pound, with EUR/GBP above 0.8840.

Date Event Actual Previous
July 9 Germany Balance of Trade s.a MAY €19.7B €20.1B
July 9 ECB Praet Speech
July 9 ECB Draghi Speech
July 10 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL -24.7 -16.1
July 10 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL -18.7 -12.6
July 11 ECB Draghi Speech
July 11 ECB Praet Speech
July 11 ECB Mersch Speech
July 11 ECB Nouy Speech
July 12 Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 2.1% 2.2%
July 12 Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 2.1% 2.2%
July 12 Eurozone Industrial Production YoY MAY 2.4% 1.7%
July 12 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
July 13 Germany Wholesale Prices YoY JUN 2.9%