The euro rebounded yesterday after falling for most of the week. Looking at euro news, the ECB's chief economist Praet yesterday stated that the Bank will seek to "recalibrate" existing policies as opposed to discussing an "exit". This position may be below the market's current expectation. Many euro spectators have been expecting the ECB to outline a plan to "normalize" its policies. Earlier in 2015, Draghi stated that lowering bond purchases was closer to a recalibration, while an exit implied an eventual end to quantitative easing. As the ECB attempts to reset the market's expectations regarding its intentions, the euro is likely to weaken accordingly. Given the euro mostly strengthened yesterday, the ECB's potential new stance has yet to be reflected in the currency.
EUR/USD is now trading close to 1.1790, having rebounded from its latest bottom close to 1.1750. The currency has mostly traded sideways against the yen since Tuesday, although the pair has made gains today. EUR/JPY is currently trading above 132.70. Looking at EUR/GBP, the pair traded sideways on Wednesday and Thursday this week, while gaining today. EUR/GBP is currently above 0.8780.
In economic data, this is a fairly light week. Consumer confidence came in within expectations (-1.2) while business/investment sentiment beat expectations. The market is awaiting flash inflation figures today. Last week saw PMI data for both manufacturing and services beat estimates.
After falling consecutively in the last week of September for four days in a row, the short-term euro bear market is now taking a breather. As such we are upgrading its outlook to neutral. Looking at technicals, the currency looks slightly oversold in the short-term, based on the daily chart of the euro currency index.
We are downgrading the medium term outlook on the euro to bearish, after many months of maintaining a positive or neutral outlook on the common currency. The euro began its most recent sell-off following the German elections on September 24. The euro has been particularly weak against the US dollar, which is now rebounding after many months of weakness. We continue to believe that the euro is overbought, based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.