The euro is mostly flat today, and is starting to look oversold in the short-term time frame. As Eurozone bond yields continue falling (especially relative to major peers), the currency is weakening as a result. This week, the currency has failed to meaningfully strengthen despite strong economic data (retail sales, PMIs and producer prices were all stronger relative to expectations) while Italy's 'eurosceptic' Five Star Movement failed to gain control in a recent election in Sicily. While there are few reasons to get excited about the euro over the long-term, the common currency looks due for a short-term relief rally.
The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading above 1.160. Looking at EUR/JPY, the pair is flat today and is currently trading just above 131.90. The euro is up slightly against the pound, with EUR/GBP now trading above 0.8810.
This week’s Eurozone economic calendar includes a fair amount of survey data and trade balance figures. On Monday, Eurozone Markit Composite PMIs beat expectations (56 vs 55.9 expected). Eurozone producer prices were also above expectations (2.9% vs. 2.8% expected). German industrial production missed expectations (3.6% vs. 4.4% expected) while Eurozone retail sales (3.7% vs. 2.7% expected) beat expectations. On Thursday, we’ll see German trade balances. Last week, GDP growth figures exceeded expectations while inflation came in below estimates.
As the euro remains weak following the recent ECB meeting, we are downgrading the currency to bearish in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators, the currency is neither oversold nor overbought and is trading within normal conditions.
Following the ECB meeting, our medium-term outlook on the euro is back to bearish. While the currency looked overbought in mid-October, this is no longer the case today and the euro is trading within normal ranges. This is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.