The euro is mostly weaker this morning, particularly against the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. The currency is trading sideways against the pound while gaining against the Australian dollar. Last Friday, year-over-year inflation figures met expectations (1.4%). As inflation remains far weaker than the ECB's target range, there is limited economic data to support expectations that the Bank will curtail its asset buying program later this year. Instead, markets will be have to rely on improving growth figures and hopes that the ECB will forecast higher inflation in its projections. In general, we continue to believe that the euro remains in a bull market thanks to strong global growth, and expect the currency to make new highs over the coming weeks. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the euro remains bullish.
EUR/USD is down this morning and currently trading above 1.2010. The euro is slightly higher against the yen, with EUR/JPY trading above 136.0. Finally, the euro is flat against the pound, with EUR/GBP above 0.8860.
This is a relatively light week for economic data relating to the euro. Later today, we'll see the Sentix index (sentiment), retail sales, consumer confidence and consumer inflation expectations from the Eurozone. Tomorrow, we'll see German trade balances and Eurozone unemployment. On Thursday, we'll get Eurozone industrial production. Last week, both manufacturing PMIs and inflation met expectations.
As monetary policy expectations and economic growth power the euro, we are upgrading the outlook to bullish in the medium-term. Note that the euro is trading within normal ranges. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.