The euro is flat against most currencies this morning including the US dollar and the British pound. The currency is currently weaker against the yen and the Australian dollar. After the common currency rose to 1.20+ against the dollar last week, the euro has been consolidating. While we warned that the currency was looking overbought on the daily charts last week, this is no longer the case today. Looking at data releases, euro area confidence is almost at two decade highs. Retail sales for the region also came in higher than expectations. As forward-looking indicators continue to suggest fast growth, the longer term outlook for the common currency remains positive. Looking at German coalition news, the Financial Times is reporting that Merkel remains upbeat regarding a 'grand coalition' arrangement with the SPD. Our short-term and medium-term outlook on the euro remains bullish.
EUR/USD is flat this morning and currently trading above 1.1960. The euro is down against the yen, with EUR/JPY trading above 134.90. Finally, the euro is flat against the pound, with EUR/GBP above 0.8820.
This is a relatively light week for economic data relating to the euro. Retail sales were higher than expectations (2.8% vs. 2.2% expected). Consumer confidence came within expectations (0.5%) while economic sentiment (116 vs. 114.8 expected) and business climate (1.66 vs. 1.51 expected) survey results were better than expected. The Sentix index was also above forecasts (32.9 vs. 31.5 expected). German trade balances were slightly lower than estimates (€25.4b vs. €25.5b expected). Later today, we'll see Eurozone unemployment. On Thursday, we'll get Eurozone industrial production. Last week, both manufacturing PMIs and inflation met expectations.
As the euro strengthens thanks to the strong outlook for its economy, we are upgrading the currency to bullish in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators, the currency is trading within a normal range. This is based on a daily chart of the euro currency index.
As monetary policy expectations and economic growth power the euro, we are upgrading the outlook to bullish in the medium-term. Note that the euro is trading within normal ranges. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.