The euro is mostly flat today - the common currency is making small gains versus the Japanese yen while selling off against the Australian dollar. Movements in the euro against other currencies are fairly limited. Last week, the euro sold off throughout the week, but made gains on Friday. Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been fairly disappointing, and suggests a weak outlook for 2018.
Turning to news and events, we covered easing trade tensions in our US dollar daily update. This is a fairly light week for economic data from the region. Thanks to slowing German industrial production figures announced last week, expectations for the related Eurozone figures are fairly weak. There is also a risk that upcoming German trade balance figures miss expectations thanks to slowing global growth. Our short-term outlook on the euro is neutral, while our medium-term outlook is bullish.
EUR/USD is flat and trading above 1.2270. The euro is up against the yen, with EUR/JPY trading above 131.380. Finally, the euro is up slightly against the pound, with EUR/GBP above 0.870.
Looking at economic data from the Eurozone, traders will be focused on trade balance numbers. Later today, we'll see February trade balance figures fom Germany. On Thursday, we'll see Eurozone industrial production and see policy meeting accounts from the last ECB meeting. On Friday, we'll see the second-take of German consumer price index figures for March and Eurozone trade balances. Last week, German factory orders and industrial production missed expectations by a wide margin.
As the euro runs out of steam, we are downgrading the currency to neutral in the short-term. Looking at various technical indicators, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on a daily chart of the euro currency index.
As the euro continues to strengthen, we are upgrading the outlook to bullish in the medium-term. Note that the euro is currently trading within normal conditions. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.