Caught between US dollar weakness and a bond sell-off last night, gold ended the day flat. This morning, the precious metal is strengthening. As we have written before, we believe expectations for rate hikes will fall as the outlook for inflation looks weak. As gold prices strengthen when the Federal Reserve is on hold, it follows that future gold strength is increasingly likely. While our short-term and medium-term trending indicators continue to suggest a bearish outlook, we expect to upgrade short-term outlook to neutral shortly. A move towards $1,290 (the most recent top) thus looks more likely.
After its most recent bottom around $1,240, gold is now above $1,263.