After rising yesterday, gold prices continue to strengthen this morning. Despite ongoing political tensions in Catalonia, the US dollar remains fairly weak as markets doubt the outlook for future inflation. Today's Core PCE figures are likely to be strong, as November inflation figures have benefited from stronger commodity prices since last summer. Going forward, future inflation data is likely to be weaker after the commodity bull market paused in early November. Historically, the Federal Reserve has hesitated to raise rates in an environment of decelerating inflation. We will upgrade our short-term outlook on gold to neutral later today given recent strength. We also expect to upgrade our medium-term outlook shortly.
After its most recent bottom around $1,240, gold is now above $1,268.