Gold Daily Updates

02 October 2017

Gold continues to weaken, thanks to a rebounding US dollar and rising interest rate expectations. Last Friday saw a turbulent session for the US dollar, with the currency initially weakening on lower-than-expected Core PCE figures and rumors that Warsh was Trump's leading candidate to be the next Fed Chair. Later in the day, the currency rallied as Harker re-affirmed the high likelihood of another interest rate hike in December. The dollar's strength has led to most interest rate-sensitive assets, including gold, to weaken. 

Despite Trump's Twitter comments this weekend suggesting that diplomatic talks with North Korea would be of limited use, gold has not strengthened as political tensions rise. 

Our short-term and medium-term outlook on gold remains bearish, despite approaching oversold conditions. After its most recent peak close to $1,310, gold is now well under $1,280. The precious metal is currently trading below $1,273. 

Updated 
Short term outlook
Bearish

After falling below $1,300 on Yellen's comments on September 26, gold is back to bearish. The Federal Reserve Chair reiterated the need to continue hiking rates, despite uncertainty regarding the future path of inflation. This was followed by the revelation of Trump's tax plan on September 27, which has led to further dollar strength (and gold weakness). Gold previously entered overbought conditions in early September, and is now approaching oversold conditions in early October. This is based on various technical indicators on a daily chart of the precious metal.  

Medium term outlook
Bearish

Looking at the medium term picture, we remain bearish on gold in the medium term. Gold is currently correcting, having entered overbought conditions in early September. The recent bout has accelerated following the Federal Reserve's suggestion that future interest rate hikes are likely and Donald Trump's tax plan. Today, prices have re-entered normal trading conditions when looking at various technical indicators, and gold no longer looks overbought. 

Updated