Gold has now strengthened for the last six sessions consecutively, but is running out of steam as it approaches $1,300. Falling inflation expectations are taking a toll on the precious metal. Hopes for a tax reform deal are falling, as Trump's latest executive order relating to healthcare is raising concerns about his inability to get bills passed in Congress. Instead US bonds are now rising sharply, looking at prices for Treasury bonds in the last two days. As inflation expectations are mostly related to US politics or commodity prices today, the precious metal will struggle unless higher future inflation looks more likely.
Looking at technical indicators, gold is neither overbought nor oversold today and is trading within normal conditions. After its most recent bottom close to $1,270, gold is now above $1,295.
After rebounding from oversold conditions in early October, we are now bullish on gold in the short-term. We previously warned that the precious metal was looking oversold and due for a rebound. The precious metal has since re-entered normal trading conditions, based on various technical indicators on the daily chart.
Looking at the medium term picture, we are now neutral on gold after the precious metal rose in the second week of October. The US dollar is broadly correcting based on renewed concerns that Trump may not be able to pass the tax plan, and given recent strength in the euro and the Chinese yuan. Today, prices have re-entered normal trading conditions when looking at various technical indicators, and gold no longer looks overbought.