The yen was stronger yesterday but is weakening today. Looking at USD/JPY, the pair fell after President Trump announced that the US would recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Given the yen's sensitivity to political risks, the currency strengthened on the news. Today, the yen is weakening as expectations for US tax cuts rises. As House and Senate Republicans begin negotiations, there are signs that progress is being made. Looking at the latest news from Bloomberg, proposals being discussed include higher corporate tax rates and retaining the SALT deduction. Our medium-term outlook on the yen remains bearish.
USD/JPY is currently trading just above 112.50. Looking at the euro vs. the yen, EUR/JPY is up and is currently trading above 132.70.
This is a fairly light week for economic data releases relating to the yen. Consumer confidence was stronger relative to the last print (44.9 vs. 44.5 prior). The Coincident Index (0.3 vs. -1.4 prior) and the Leading Economic Index (-0.4 vs. -0.7 prior) were higher than the previous print. Cross-border stock (-¥167.1b) and bond (-¥208.1b) investments continue to result in net capital outflows. Finally on Friday we’ll get the Eco Watchers Survey and Q3 GDP growth. Last week, household spending was better than expected.
As the yen strengthens on the weak inflation outlook, we are upgrading the yen to neutral in the short-term. Note that the currency is trading within normal conditions, based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As the yen sells off on hopes for US tax cuts, we are downgrading the yen to bearish. Looking at the yen on a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.