The Japanese yen is mixed today - the yen is currently strengthening against the US dollar and commodity currencies, while weakening against the euro and the British pound. Yesterday, the currency traded in a similar pattern - strengthening against the dollar while weakening against the euro and the pound.
Turning to recent news, Trump and Abe are set to begin a summit at the President's Mar-a-Lago resort today. The two leaders will discuss a variety of topics including the TPP trade agreement, North Korea, and the trading relationship between the US and Japan. According to a Reuters report, Japanese officials are wary that Trump may offer significant concessions to North Korea. Abe is also concerned that Trump will link national security concerns with Japanese trade policies. Following the Moritomo scandal, the Japanese prime minister is eager for a positive outcome from today's meeting. Our short-term outlook on the yen is neutral, while our medium-term outlook on the yen remains bullish.
USD/JPY is currently trading above 106.90. EUR/JPY is currently up slightly and trading above 132.70.
Looking at Japanese economic data this week, important data releases include the trade balance and inflation figures. YoY February industrial production (1.6% vs. 2.3% expected) missed consensus estimates while February capacity utilization (1.3% vs. -0.3% expected) was better than estimates. Tomorrow, we’ll see the adjusted trade balance for March. On Thursday, we’ll see foreign investment in Japanese equities and Japanese investment in foreign bonds. On Friday, the most important day, we’ll see the YoY national consumer price index for March. Last week, the Eco-Watcher Survey results were below consensus expectations.
As the yen runs out of steam, we are now neutral on the yen in the short-term. Note that the currency is trading within a normal range, based on technical indicators on the daily chart.
As the yen strengthens, we are upgrading the yen to neutral. Looking at the yen on a weekly chart, the currency is trading within normal conditions. This is based on various technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.