USD Daily Updates

25 September 2018

The US dollar is currently mixed. While the buck is slightly weaker against the euro and the British pound, the dollar is slightly higher against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Yesterday, the US dollar index (a measure of the currency against its largest peers) ended the day flat. Trading volumes in US dollar index futures were lower than the previous session, and in line with 30-day averages. Today's US dollar index trading range is 93.80 - 96.30. The US dollar index is back to trading in oversold territory. 

There are no significant economic developments driving the dollar today. Later today, we'll see house price data. Tomorrow, the most important day this week, we'll see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and forward guidance. Based on interest rate markets, traders have fully priced in a rate hike tomorrow.  

Looking at recent price action, the US dollar index fell yesterday following European Central Bank President Draghi's comments. Specifically, Draghi described inflation as "relatively vigorous" - a sign that Euro area monetary policy is likely to be tighter in the future. As the euro is one of the biggest components in the index, the US dollar tends to fall when the euro rises. After falling to an area just above its most recent low (93.81), the US dollar index found significant support and moved higher. The US dollar index has now tested its most recent bottom for three sessions in a row. Despite recent weakness, our outlook on the US dollar remains bullish. 

USD/JPY is up slightly and currently trading above 112.80. EUR/USD is up slightly and trading above 1.1760. GBP/USD is up slightly, and currently above 1.3140.

Date Event Actual Previous
September 24 Chicago Fed National Activity Index AUG 0.18 0.18
September 24 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP 28.1 30.9
September 25 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL 6.3%
September 25 CB Consumer Confidence SEP 133.4
September 26 New Home Sales AUG 0.627M
September 26 FOMC Economic Projections
September 26 Fed Interest Rate Decision 2%
September 26 Fed Press Conference
September 27 Goods Trade Balance Adv AUG $-72.2B
September 27 Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG -1.7%
September 27 Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM AUG -1%
September 27 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM AUG 0.2%
September 27 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 2.2%
September 27 Initial Jobless Claims 22/SEP 201K
September 27 Pending Home Sales YoY AUG -2.3%
September 27 Fed Kaplan Speech
September 27 Fed Chair Powell Speech
September 28 Core PCE Price Index YoY AUG 2%
September 28 Fed Barkin Speech
September 28 PCE Price Index YoY AUG 2.3%
September 28 Personal Income MoM AUG 0.3%
September 28 Personal Spending MoM AUG 0.4%
September 28 Chicago PMI SEP 63.6
September 28 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final SEP 96.2
September 28 Fed Williams Speech
Updated 
Outlook
Bullish

Updated