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US dollar daily update for 2nd October 2017


After a fairly turbulent day last Friday, the dollar is rising sharply this morning. Previously, the dollar sold off after lower-than-expected inflation figures (Core PCE) and the White House denying rumors that Warsh was likely to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Later in the day, Federal Reserve voting member Harker stuck to his calls for a December rate hike, helping the dollar climb. He specifically mentioned the strength of the labor market in his commentary. This morning has seen the dollar rise against interest rate-sensitive assets such as gold, bonds and the yen, suggesting that the market has increasing expectations of a December rate hike. 

USD/JPY is now trading just below 112.90, having started the day below 112.50. The pair had gained above 113 last week. The euro is now back to selling off, with EUR/USD below 1.1770. The pair began the day above 118.00. 

This week's data releases include a raft of survey, employment and durable goods numbers. Today we'll see Markit manufacturing PMIs. On Wednesday, we'll get both ADP jobs figures as well as Markit composite PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data. On Thursday we'll see trade balance figures and factory orders. Finally, on Friday, we'll get the all-important non-farm payrolls figures and the unemployment rate. Last week saw better-than-expected GDP growth figures and worse-than-expected inflation (Core PCE) numbers. 


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