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US dollar daily update for 6th October 2017


Yesterday was a great day for the dollar, as the currency rose after the 2018 budget resolution was passed by Congress. With the budget resolution out of the way, markets are now growing more optimistic regarding Trump's tax reforms. Thanks to the resolution's budget reconciliation rules, Trump can pass his tax reforms without any votes from Democrats. However, the reforms will fail if only two Republican senators vote against it (the healthcare vote in earlier months faced a similar challenge). With tax reforms looking more likely, the 'Trump trade' is returning and this is causing the dollar to strengthen.  

USD/JPY is back above 113 this morning, having rallied from around 112.80 earlier today. The euro is selling off for the second day in a row today, and is currently trading below 1.1690. 

This week's data releases include a raft of survey, employment and durable goods numbers. On Monday, we saw ISM manufacturing data beat by a wide margin (60.8 vs 58 expected). US manufacturing is very strong thanks to the rebuilding effort following Hurricane Harvey. On Wednesday, ADP jobs figures met expectations, while Markit composite PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data beat expectations (59.8 vs. 55.5). Thursday's trade balance figures and factory orders both beat expectations. Finally, on Friday, we'll get the all-important non-farm payrolls figures and the unemployment rate. 


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