Yesterday was a great day for the dollar, as the currency rose after the 2018 budget resolution was passed by Congress. With the budget resolution out of the way, markets are now growing more optimistic regarding Trump's tax reforms. Thanks to the resolution's budget reconciliation rules, Trump can pass his tax reforms without any votes from Democrats. However, the reforms will fail if only two Republican senators vote against it (the healthcare vote in earlier months faced a similar challenge). With tax reforms looking more likely, the 'Trump trade' is returning and this is causing the dollar to strengthen.
USD/JPY is back above 113 this morning, having rallied from around 112.80 earlier today. The euro is selling off for the second day in a row today, and is currently trading below 1.1690.
This week's data releases include a raft of survey, employment and durable goods numbers. On Monday, we saw ISM manufacturing data beat by a wide margin (60.8 vs 58 expected). US manufacturing is very strong thanks to the rebuilding effort following Hurricane Harvey. On Wednesday, ADP jobs figures met expectations, while Markit composite PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data beat expectations (59.8 vs. 55.5). Thursday's trade balance figures and factory orders both beat expectations. Finally, on Friday, we'll get the all-important non-farm payrolls figures and the unemployment rate.
We are upgrading the dollar back to bullish, following news of Congress passing the 2018 budget resolution. As expectations grow for Trump's tax reform proposals, the dollar is rallying as a result. Looking at a daily chart of the US dollar index, the currency is now overbought. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators.
For the first time in 2017, we are upgrading our medium-term outlook for the dollar to bullish. The dollar has been in oversold conditions since late June and is due for a rebound. The currency has been strengthening in the last week of September initially thanks to the Federal Reserve suggesting that another interest rate hike was likely later this year. This was followed by Trump's tax plan which was revealed on September 27, which has also led to dollar strength. While the currency remains oversold in the medium-term, we expect the dollar to re-enter normal trading conditions in the coming weeks.